Hangfa Power (600893)： Q3 single quarter delivery slows down, optimistic about the company’s long-term development
Hangfa Power (600893): Q3 single quarter delivery slows down, optimistic about the company’s long-term development
This report reads: The quarterly revenue growth in the first three quarters turned slightly negative, due to the slowdown in Q3 single quarter delivery.Advance receipts and inventory have increased significantly, indicating that orders and production are full, and delivery in the fourth quarter is expected to accelerate. Investment points: Investment advice: The company’s Q3 single-quarter delivery has slowed down, and advance receipts and inventory have increased significantly, which is optimistic about the company’s long-term development.At present, the company’s main contradiction is that its production capacity is not as good as demand. Since 2014, the company’s fixed assets have increased significantly, and the economic benefits from the raised projects are gradually approaching.Maintain target price to 29.33 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.It is expected that the company’s new products will be gradually mass-produced in the next two years, and domestic substitution will accelerate, maintaining EPS0 in 2019-2021.57/0.66/0.77 yuan, CAGR is 11%, given a target price of 29.33 yuan, corresponding to 51 in 2019 PE.46 times, overweight. Q3 single-quarter delivery slowed, and the substantial increase in advance receipts and inventory indicated that the task was full.The company’s operating income for the first three quarters of 2019 was 127.940,000 yuan (at least -7.61%), net profit attributable to mother is 4.1.3 billion yuan (-36 for the whole year).47%).The decrease in the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was mainly due to the increase in sales and management expenses1.5.9 billion.Orders are related to advance receipts, and the company’s advance receipts for the first three quarters were 18.7.8 billion, a 10-year growth rate of 15.64%.The 2019 semi-annual report advance payment is expected to be 21.1.4 billion US dollars, with the highest value 北京桑拿 of 23 received in December 2015.It was close to 4.1 billion, when new models were mass-produced.The first three quarters of inventory 214.4.3 billion, an increase of 55 every year.7.8 billion, a previous growth rate of 35.18%.Usually Q4 single season delivery accounts for more than 40% in advance, sales revenue is expected to accelerate in Q4. Military aircraft were upgraded and domestic engines were installed in large numbers.At present, the military aircraft has been upgraded from the second generation to the third and fourth generations, and the engine increase mainly comes from three directions: 1) The three generations of fighter engines have reached the international advanced level and have a domestic substitution basis; 2) The helicopters are upgraded and the engines have been verified;The navy and air force construction demand is traction, the number increases + upgrades. Catalysts: reform of the pricing mechanism for military products; restructuring of research institutes. Risk Warning: New products are listed below expectations; military spending growth is slower than expected.